Internally, I'm really divided about the necessity to invade Iraq.
On the one hand, Saddam Hussein doesn't appear to be a threat to anyone (but his own people). Americans have let cruel dictators rule for years in dozens of countries, so just being a cruel dictator is apparently not enough to warrant an invasion. What's the big deal about giving inspectors another six months? As long as he's cooperating, let them tear the place apart. Why do we have to invade today? Can't it wait until tomorrow? What is the "clear and present danger" to steal a movie title?
On the other hand, this isn't a game of hide and go seek. He'll be able to hide these weapons forever. It's like a huge shell game. You look under one coconut shell, and the ball is actually hiding in one of the other 20,000 coconut shells on the table. It's a game you'll never win. Saddam has gotten good at these switch games. And why should we stand around and let him make a fool of us.
What would be ideal, of course, is if weapons inspectors found something. Anything. A warehouse full of sarin gas for instance. Or if Saddam did something so outrageous (like kick inspectors out of the country) that we would have no choice but to go in there. But for now, he's playing this game, waiting to get caught in a lie.
Part of it might be the fact that I just don't like George Bush. I don't like him and I don't trust him. He's like a big cowboy, who's only solution is to go into the saloon and shoot everything up. You can kind of tell he's keeping something from us. He's like a kid in elementary school who has a secret and is dying to tell you. He'd love to be able to say, "Saddam's personal chef is a CIA operative!" or something. Being the President must be tough. Day 1, they tell you that aliens did indeed land at Roswell. Day 2, they tell you that the NSA really did kill John F. Kennedy. And Day 3, the shocking news that scientists really can make a battery that lasts forever, but the powerful Duracell lobby group keeps enough funds flowing into politicians pockets to stop that news from coming out.
There's a web site called TradeSports that allows you to bet on certain world events. For example:
- As of this evening, you can win $2 for every $1 you bet if you believe Saddam will NOT be in power on March 31
- You can win $0.50 for every $1 bet if you believe Saddam will NOT be in power on June 30
You can also bet on whether there will be a second U.N. resolution. Odds are currently heavily against that happening.
I'll admit that I have a few bucks down on the outcome. I think Saddam will be able to keep power for a couple of more months at least. Even if the U.S. invades in mid-February, he still might be able to hold power for a month or two after. I also think the U.S. will seek and receive a second U.N. resolution before June. Easy bet there. The U.S. is desparate for the U.N.'s approval.
Scott

